Disruptive Technologies Likely to Rule in 2009
Bringing some radical changes in the way people look at technology, the global recession is likely to trigger a set of new trend in the IT and telecommunications industry in 2009. IDC predicts that the financial pressures felt by IT vendors and their customers will actually accelerate the industry transformation that has been underway over the last several years.
“A slow global economy will act like a pressure cooker on the IT market, speeding the development and adoption of new technologies and business models. Suppliers and customers will migrate toward new solutions not because they are about the future, but because they offer practical benefits today,” said Frank Gens, senior vice president and chief analyst at IDC.
IDC predicts that global IT spending growth will slow by half or more, effectively stripping more than $35 billion of potential revenue out of the market.
To survive, vendors need to reorient their businesses and offerings toward market segments with above average growth including the small and medium-sized business (SMB) sector and the emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, India, and China as well. Although spending will slow significantly in these markets, it will outperform the overall market. In addition, government initiatives to spur economic growth and financial stability will include outlays for new technology, making this an important market sector for the first time in many years, said the IDC release.
Other IDC predictions for 2009 include:
*While spending growth will slow for various cloud services, such as software-as-a-service and cloud storage, it will outperform more traditional IT alternatives.
*Although capital-intensive green investments will move down on many budget agendas, Green IT will have a good year in general for its ability to deliver near-term cost savings.
*The online economy will benefit as ever more shoppers turn to the Internet in search of better prices and products that have become harder to find in the struggling offline economy.
*The ‘business/personal’ divide will crumble further as the increased use of mobile technologies and Web 2.0 tools erode the distinctions between work and personal environments.
*The slowdown in spending will impact the telecommunications industry as well, cutting revenues in half, leading to global consolidation among the leading players, and sparking an aggressive expansion into cloud services.
*2009 will be a breakthrough year for information access and analysis as the next generation of Eureka 2.0 tools comes to market and a new leadership battle unfolds over this.
*It will be a grim year for mobile gadgets as consumer spending shrinks and vendors cut prices (and margins) to capture or maintain market share.
“Although one would expect to see businesses and consumers to hunker down and put IT spending on hold, it is more likely that technology spending will continue in areas where the benefits are clear. While all sectors of the market will experience slower growth in 2009, the disruptive offerings and models that are transforming the industry will take less of a beating than traditional IT areas and will actually gain share faster in the down economy.” said Gens.
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