Middle East and North Africa, Mature Asia/Pacific and Greater China Will Each Register Over 5% Growth
Worldwide sales of smartphones to end users are on track to reach 1.57 billion units in 2020, an increase of 3% year over year, according to Gartner, Inc. In 2019, worldwide smartphone sales declined 2%, the first time since 2008 that the global smartphone market experienced a decline.
“2019 was a challenging year for smartphone vendors, primarily due to oversupply in the high-end sector in mature markets and longer replacement cycles overall,” said Annette Zimmermann, research vice president at Gartner. “However, in 2020, the market is expected to rebound with the introduction of 5G network coverage in more countries and as users who may have delayed their smartphone purchases until 2020 in expectation of price reductions begin buying again.”
Gartner forecasts that sales of 5G mobile phones will total 221 million units in 2020 — which will account for 12% of overall mobile phone sales — and more than double in 2021, to 489 million units. “The commercialization of 5G phones will accelerate in 2020. 5G phones costing under $300 have been announced, so sales growth of 5G phones is expected to exceed that of 4G phones over twelve months,” said Ms. Zimmermann.
From a regional perspective, the Middle East and North Africa, mature Asia/Pacific and Greater China (China, Taiwan and Hong Kong) will exhibit the highest growth rates in 2020, at 5.9%, 5.7% and 5.1%, respectively (see Table 1).
Table 1:
Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Region, 2019-2021 (Thousands of Units)
| Region | 2019
| 2020 | 2021
|
| Eastern Europe | 48,468 | 48,532 | 49,121 |
| Emerging Asia/Pacific | 363,643 | 376,784 | 396,394 |
| Eurasia | 48,612 | 50,915 | 52,860 |
| Greater China | 411,351 | 432,328 | 426,002 |
| Japan | 31,866 | 32,273 | 33,027 |
| Latin America | 129,830 | 125,635 | 122,963 |
| Mature Asia/Pacific | 30,095 | 31,802 | 31,234 |
| Middle East and North Africa | 73,872 | 78,226 | 75,604 |
| North America | 152,857 | 155,350 | 158,618 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 90,103 | 91,917 | 93,169 |
| Western Europe | 144,141 | 147,457 | 150,206 |
| Total | 1,524,838 | 1,571,219 | 1,589,198 |
Source: Gartner (January 2020)
Strong demand for 5G phones in general, together with expectations of Apple’s first 5G iPhone, will bolster demand for smartphones, particularly in Asia/Pacific and Greater China. In terms of smartphone sales, Greater China and emerging Asia/Pacific will maintain their No. 1 and No. 2 positions globally in 2020, with respective sales of 432.3 million and 376.8 million smartphones.
“Smartphone sales will register growth in 2020 as the demand for mid-price smartphones rises in India,” said Anshul Gupta, senior research director at Gartner. “Premium features including improved camera, display at affordable price will remain key for growth in the Indian smartphone market in 2020.”
What to Expect at MWC 2020
“Attention at this year’s MWC will be drawn to 5G devices at either end of the price scale, some of which may be revealed before the event,” said Ms. Zimmermann. “The key focus for vendors will be access to 5G and enhancement of the camera technology within devices.”
Gartner clients can read more on the outlook of smartphone sales in “Forecast: Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2017-2023, 4Q19 Update.”
About Gartner
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world’s leading research and advisory company and a member of the S&P 500. We equip business leaders with indispensable insights, advice and tools to achieve their mission-critical priorities and build the successful organizations of tomorrow.
Our unmatched combination of expert-led, practitioner-sourced and data-driven research steers clients toward the right decisions on the issues that matter most. We are a trusted advisor and objective resource for more than 15,000 organizations in more than 100 countries — across all major functions, in every industry and organization size.
To learn more about how we help decision makers fuel the future of business, visit www.gartner.com.
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