Despite Global Talent Crunch, India To Have Manpower Surplus
India would have a talent surplus of around 245.3 million workers by 2030 at a time when the world would face a major talent deficit, according to US-based global consulting firm Korn Ferry. The world’s sixth largest economy, India, is the only place in the APAC region that will have a talent surplus by 2030, said the study titled: Global Talent Crunch.
The study says the skilled talent shortage will continue to impede growth and, if not addressed, could have a significant impact on major APAC and other global economies by 2030.
“Companies must work to mitigate this potential talent crisis to protect future,” said Michael Distefano, Chief Operating Officer, Korn Ferry Asia Pacific.
He added that if left to run its course, this shortage will severely impact the growth of markets across APAC. The region is expected to have an imminent talent deficit of over 12.3 million workers by 2020, rising to a shortage of 47 million workers by 2030. The shortage could lead to $4.238 trillion in unrealised annual revenue loss if the problem is not addressed, the report says.
The study estimates the gap between future talent supply and demand in 20 major economies in 2020, 2025 and 2030, and across three sectors: financial and business services; technology, media and telecommunications and manufacturing.
“The world can’t afford to have tens of millions of unfilled jobs and trillions of dollars in unrealized revenue,” said Alan Guarino, vice chairman, Korn Ferry CEO and Board Services. “Companies must work to mitigate this potential talent crisis now to protect their future. If nothing is done, this shortage will debilitate the growth of key global markets and sectors.”
The study also reveals a sizable mismatch between supply of available workers and business demand at country level. According to the study, developed markets will be hardest hit by imminent talent shortages. Australia, France, Germany, Japan and the U.S. face the largest threat, with a combined opportunity cost of $1.876 trillion in annual revenues by 2020. The U.S. faces a critical shortage of skilled workers that is set to worsen. It could leave $1.748 trillion of annual revenue on the table by 2030 – equivalent to 6 percent of the country’s economy. The only sweet spot is India is the only economy in the study maintaining a talent surplus in 2025 and 2030.
“The right talent is the greatest competitive advantage there is for an organization – and that talent is getting scarcer every day,” said Guarino. “Our study reveals that there already isn’t enough skilled talent to go around and by 2030, organizations and economies could find themselves in the grip of a talent crisis. In the face of such acute talent shortages, workforce planning and a comprehensive understanding of the talent pipeline are critical.”
“The future will be built on the effective partnership between people and technology,” said Guarino. “The acute demand for workers with the right skills that businesses need, rather than the much-discussed domination of technology in business, could become the defining issue of our age,” he concluded.